AMI tourism forecast dire, staggering losses due to COVID-19

Anna Maria Island’s economy is tourist-driven.

But COVID-19 brought tourism to a halt.

First came orders to remain 6 feet apart and limit social gatherings.

Then came Manatee County administrator Cheri Coryea’s announcement the local beaches were closed, followed by orders from Gov. Ron DeSantis to shut down vacation rentals of less than 30 days, instruct travelers from out of state to self-quarantine and create border checkpoints.

And April 3, the governor put a statewide stay-at-home order into effect, with exemptions for essential services and essential activities.

By then, the looming economic downtown was obvious.

StratoDem released a report showing a 28% downturn in Manatee County’s GDP would occur in April-June, translating to a $993 million impact, according to Michael Clawar, managing partner at StratoDem Analytics in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The company helps clients in the real estate sector, according to its website at Stratodem.com.

“These numbers are really scary and unbelievable,” Clawar told The Islander.

Clawar said StratoDem looked at Manatee County because it is a top market in tourism-driven economies in the United States.

Elliott Falcione, executive director of the Bradenton Area Convention and Visitors Bureau, said of the situation, “I never thought I would see anything like this.”

“We know there will be a light at the end of the tunnel. But right now, it’s literally one hour at a time.”

Falcione said the BACVB was operating in crisis management mode.

“We need to be ready when the time for recovery comes. I think our sheltering-in-place is working in Manatee County. Our staff is set for tourism recovery with third-party providers and global competitors ready to assist,” he said.

A partnership with Visit Florida to tie in the Gulf coast from Collier to Pinellas counties is being discussed, but Falcione did not provide details.

“We have to be somewhat guarded in showcasing our playbook at this point. But I guarantee, we will be honest and we will be transparent,” he said.

Restoring canceled flights at Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, Tampa International Airport and other nearby hubs is another part of the puzzle that must be reassembled.

According to Mark Stuckey, senior vice president and chief operating officer at SRQ, about 500 flights were canceled in March.

“As of April 2, we are averaging 10-12 departing flights and 10-12 arriving flights per day,” Stuckey said by phone. “And planes are averaging 15-20 passengers per flight.”

Typically, the airport sees 44 flight arrivals and 44 departures daily.

Stuckey said carriers were not updating schedules and there are no plans to add flights.

The impact of travel restrictions and other limits is impacting tourist-driven business from one end of the island to the other.

Suzette Buchan and husband John spent more than 18 months restoring the Rod & Reel Motel, 877 N. Shore Drive, Anna Maria.

April 1, Buchan was in Michigan with a filing cabinet full of cancellations and one occupied guest room at the boutique property.

“Up until March 20, we were at 100% occupancy. Then we went down to 30%. Now we have one couple left,” Buchan said.

“But everybody’s doing the same thing,” she added. “It’s quite sweeping.”

The motel modified cancellation policies, offering refunds, rebooks and “whatever it takes” so customers visit at later date.

“We are all in this together,” Buchan said.

Falcione said the federal legislation enacted in late March — the CARES Act — should help, expanding unemployment benefits and providing loans for businesses.

“The charm here is the island restaurants, the mom-and-pop businesses. We need those businesses to recover,” Falcione said. “And we need the employees.”

 

February bed tax collections:

  • 2020: $2,050,736,24.
  • 2019: $1,759,296.72.
  • 2018: $1,590,959.75.
  • 2017: $1,470,812.43.
  • 2016: $1,478,782.07.
  • 2015: $1,383,574.57.