An early forecast calls for an “above normal” Atlantic hurricane season.
The prediction is from Colorado State University’s department of atmospheric science and is based in part on average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and warmer than normal temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic.
The researchers said it seems unlikely that El Niño conditions will occur this season. Typically, El Niño reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic region.
The forecast, released April 8, calls for:
- 17 named storms, the average is 12.1;
- 80 storm days, the average is 59.4;
- Eight hurricanes, the average is 6.4;
- Four major hurricanes, the average is 2.7.
The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline is 69%.
The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, is 45%.
The CSU forecast is among the earliest outlooks.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its seasonal outlook.
NOAA announced April 9 it is adjusting how it defines an “average” season, based on 1991-2020 storm records. Such adjustments occur about every decade.
Now, an “average” season will include 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Previously, the “average” was 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.