A national forecast for an “above-normal” hurricane season came with the usual message: Get prepared.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued May 20 its forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1.
Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Forecasters do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020, when there were 30 named storms and 12 landfalling storms in the United States.
For 2021, the forecast is for 13-20 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.
The forecast calls for 6-10 storms to become hurricanes and 3-5 to become major hurricanes, with winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said, “Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon would likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.”
NOAA said it provided the ranges with 70% confidence.
“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in a news release accompanying the government’s forecast.
Last month, NOAA updated statistics to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near- or below-average relative to the latest climate record.
Based on the update, an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
In June
Look to the June 2 issue of The Islander for our annual storm-tracking map and each issue in June will feature storm readiness tips. And check islander.org throughout the season for breaking news.
2021 storm names
The 2021 storm names for the Atlantic hurricane season include: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Theresa, Victor and Wanda.