Forecasters increased their hurricane season outlook July 9, days after Beryl barreled through the Caribbean and up the Gulf of Mexico into the record books.
In April, Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather and Climate team released an early forecast that called for an extremely active hurricane season.
On July 9, the CSU team said, “We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
In their April forecast, they predicted 11 hurricanes, including five major hurricanes.
They are now predicting 12 hurricanes, including six major hurricanes.
“Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels,” the forecast stated. “Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”
The forecasters continue to anticipate La Nina conditions during peak hurricane season, which is August-October.
La Nina tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. The decreased upper-level winds result in reduced vertical wind shear, favoring Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.
“This forecast is of above-normal confidence,” the CSU team said.
They predicted 25 named storms and 120 storm days, 12 hurricanes and 50 hurricane days.
As of July 10, three named storms had formed: Alberto, Beryl and Chris.
Beryl was a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane.
Beryl formed as a tropical depression June 28 and, within the first 24 hours, the storm rapidly intensified into a hurricane with winds of 75 mph.
Beryl was the farthest east that a hurricane had formed in June, according to National Hurricane Center records.
Beryl underwent another instance of rapid intensification, becoming the first Category 4 hurricane to form in June.
Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island July 1 as a strong Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 150 mph, and brought catastrophic winds and life-threatening storm surge to the southern Windward Islands as it tracked into the Caribbean Sea, where it continued to gain strength.
The next day, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005. On average, the first major hurricane does not form until Sept. 1.
The CSU forecasters called Beryl “a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.”
“We have increased our overall forecast numbers slightly, due in part to Hurricane Beryl,” the new outlook read.
Generally, early-season Atlantic hurricane activity does not correlate with an overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, CSU said, when the early season activity occurs in the tropical Atlantic, it is a harbinger of a very active season.
Since 1900, there have been four years with tropical Atlantic hurricanes before Aug. 1 — 1926, 1996, 2005 and 2008 — and all were considered above-normal in activity, with, on average, 10 hurricanes.
Online storm resources
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- Manatee County: mymanatee.org
- National Hurricane Center: nhc.noaa.gov
- NOAA’s nowCOAST: nowcoast.noaa.gov
- Marine Weather Portal: mwp.secoora.org
- The Islander: islander.org
- BayNews9: baynews9.com/fl/tampa