An above-normal hurricane season is forecast for the Atlantic region.
The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA released its forecast May 25. The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1-Nov. 30.
The forecasters put the likelihood of an above-normal season at 45 percent.
An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The government forecast says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher.
The forecast calls for five to nine storms becoming hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher. Two to four of the hurricanes would be major storms, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
The lead hurricane forecaster at the CPC, Gerry Bell, said the scientists expect a “a weak or non-existent El Niño, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region.”
A weak El Niño points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes.
For more about the forecast and hurricane season, see “Storm Avengers: Guardians of the Gulf” special section this week.