After Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter, Colorado State University researchers updated their forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
They still predict a slightly above-average season, with a total of 16 named storms. In other words, there probably will be an Erin and could well be a Pablo.
The forecast number includes the four storms that have already formed this season, with Dexter being the most recent.
The team cited above-average tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of eight total hurricanes this year, including three major hurricanes.
Their report also includes probabilities for major hurricanes making landfall during the remainder of the season:
- 48% for the entire U.S. coastline;
- 24% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula;
- 31% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas;
- 52% for the Caribbean.
The tropical Atlantic has warmed faster than normal over the past few weeks due to relatively weak winds blowing across the area leading to less evaporation and mixing of the ocean surface, according to CSU.
Waters warmer than normal in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea tend to favor an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.
The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions and there remains some uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.
But the odds of El Nino are quite low — about 6%. El Nino, a recurring climate pattern, tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, which results in increased vertical wind shear, thereby reducing the odds of Atlantic hurricane formation.
“The absence of El Nino, as anticipated this year, is generally associated with upper-level wind conditions that are conducive for hurricane development across the tropical Atlantic,” the CSU team said in its Aug. 6 forecast.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1-Nov. 30.
Storm names
The storm names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season include: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
