Federal officials forecasted a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season May 21, citing the expected development of El Nino as a key suppressing factor, but emphasized it just takes one storm to make a disastrous season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 8-14 named storms for the 2026 season, which runs June 1-Nov. 30. Of those, 3-6 are expected to reach hurricane strength, with 1-3 potentially becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
NOAA put a 55% probability on a below-normal season, compared with just 10% odds of an above-normal one. By comparison, an average season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes.
The primary driver for the forecast is the anticipated arrival and strengthening of El Nino, the periodic warming of central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic — a condition that disrupts the formation of hurricanes.
However, Atlantic Ocean temperatures are running warmer than normal and trade winds are likely to be weaker than average.
Both conditions favor storm development and warming oceans driven by climate change fuel stronger hurricanes that bring more heavy rainfall and higher storm surge when they make landfall.
“It’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Graham joined NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Rear Admiral Chad Cary of NOAA’s Office of Marine Aviation Operations and FEMA’s acting region 4 administrator Robert P. Ashe in Lakeland for a pre-season news conference, which also was broadcast online.
NOAA announced several technological upgrades that officials said will improve forecast accuracy and emergency response.
For the first time, data collected by drones will be fed directly into NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. Scientists determined that incorporating drone data can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.
Also, the National Hurricane Center will roll out an updated forecast cone graphic that includes tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas, addressing longstanding concerns that storm surge and flooding threats to interior communities are often underappreciated by the public.
NHC also is testing an experimental cone that will capture a wider range of possible storm tracks, accounting for uncertainties in both direction and timing.
Additionally, NOAA’s flood inundation mapping service — which gives emergency managers street-level visualizations of expected flooding — currently covers 60% of the U.S. population and is set to expand to nearly 100% by late September.
Jacobs highlighted the role of artificial intelligence. “NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” he said.
NOAA will update its seasonal outlook in early August, ahead of the statistical peak of hurricane season.
Officials urged residents in hurricane-prone areas not to treat the below-normal forecast as cause for complacency.