Scientists at the federal Climate Prediction Center increased their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
Forecasters, in the projection released Aug. 10, said current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
The Climate Prediction Center is a division of the National Weather Service, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Forecasters increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60% from a 30% chance forecast in May.
The update to the outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater, of which 6-11 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Of those, as many as five could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.
The updated ranges include storms that already formed this season.
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.